from Amazon...As a side project to continue developing my Python skills I am going to learn how to write scripts to implement prediction markets (and/or other collective intelligence type algorithms). I would be quite keen to see if such algorithms could be used to aggregate macro-economic forecasts. I suspect that prediction markets can be used to make macro-economic forecasts, and I would be surprised if someone was not already doing it.
As Scott Page pointed out in his excellent book The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies (New Edition)
, diversity of models used by participants to make forecasts is an important part of any successful prediction market. I suspect that maintaining this diversity would be difficult in macro-economic prediction markets simply because there is a limited number of variables used to predict something like GDP, or industrial production...
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